Political commentator shares thoughts on seat of Keppel

5th December 2017 3:25 PM
EDGING CLOSER: A final result in the Keppel electorate isn't far off. EDGING CLOSER: A final result in the Keppel electorate isn't far off. Contributed

ALTHOUGH the state election result appears to be a forgone conclusion in Keppel, a political commentator found the implications fascinating to discuss.

With the cut off for postal votes last night, the counting of preferences was expected to commence in the seat of Keppel today.

Labor's incumbent Brittany Lauga, who has already claimed victory in Keppel with 42.8 per cent of the primary vote, has been busy attending graduation ceremonies today.

"Last primary and postal votes being counted today and then a full preference distribution commenced this afternoon and into the evening,” Mrs Lauga said.

"We should know more tonight.”

With One Nation's Matt Loth sitting on 25.5 per cent, 201 votes ahead of the LNP, he's not giving up hope of an unlikely come from behind victory, saying he will have to "hang tight to wait for the final result”.

READ: Keppel election result expected early next week

One Nation candidate for the seat of Keppel Matt Loth
One Nation candidate for Keppel Matt Loth Trish Bowman

READ: Keppel's election result is closer than you think

With two seats still in doubt around the state, it was expected that the Queensland Premier would claim an inevitable victory by Friday at the latest.

LATEST RESULTS: Labor has almost won the Queensland election.
LATEST RESULTS: Labor has almost won the Queensland election. Contributed

Political commentator and UQ lecturer Dr Chris Salisbury regarded the election fortunes of Keppel as a reflection of the broader state-wide result.

Going in the election, Dr Salisbury regarded Keppel as being at risk of falling to the LNP and was instead surprised to see the strong showing by One Nation's Matt Loth.

ELECTION FALL OUT: UQ's Dr Salisbury, who is an expert in Australian state and federal politics and election campaigns, shared his insight on CQ.
POLITICAL EXPERT: University of Queensland's Dr Salisbury. Contributed

"Looking at how the numbers are falling after the vote, it's almost like this is a bit of a microcosm for the state election as a whole,” Dr Salisbury said.

"Brittany Lauga's vote hasn't moved much at all since the last election, you had a big showing by One Nation that's effectively carved into LNP vote far more than into Labor, and now they're coming second in the seat.

Minister for Health Cameron Dick joined with Member for Keppel Brittany Lauga to announcement  a significant investment in ice services in Rockhampton.
Member for Keppel Brittany Lauga with Minister for Health Cameron Dick announcing a significant investment in ice services in Rockhampton. Allan Reinikka ROK151117aice1

"And then preferences aren't just flowing directly back to the LNP.”

Dr Salisbury said with this seat and some of the others, its going to take some time till there's a better picture where preferences end up going.

"With Keppel I think its probably safe to say Labor has retained it but it's surprising that there has been little shift in Labor vote,” he said.

"All the movement since the last election has come at the expense of the LNP.”

READ: Election Analysis: Keppel's winners and losers at key booths

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